原文标题：Get Ready for Another Real Estate Bubble

准备好迎接下一场房地产泡沫

Real estate prices increased again in January, with several states reaching new historic highs, leading experts to wonder whether another real estate bubble might be brewing. 

在今年的1月份房地产的价格持续的增长，在一些州和地区已经创下了历史最高纪录，权威专家怀疑是否另一场房地产泡沫即将到来。

Nationwide, home prices rose by 5.7 percent in January compared to a year ago, according to data released Tuesday by CoreLogic. 

根据CoreLogic周二公布的数据，从全国范围来看，房屋的价格在1月份同比上涨了5.7%。

CoreLogic also cited four states (Colorado, Texas, Wyoming and New York) where home prices have reached new historical record highs. Colorado was the state with the highest home price appreciation in January with a 9.1 percent increase, while Texas and Wyoming were shortly behind with 8.3 percent increases. New York homes rose by 5.6 percent.

CoreLogic同时也指出四个州（科罗拉多、得克萨斯州、怀俄明和纽约州）的房价已经达到历史上的最高。科罗拉多是这些州立房价涨幅最大的州，涨幅达到9.1%，得克萨斯州和怀俄明州紧随其后也达到了8.3%的增长。纽约州的房价也上涨了5.6%。

“In part, these trends reflect the strength of regional economies,” Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic, said in a press release. “Colorado and Texas have had stronger job creation and have seen 8 to 9 percent price gains over the past 12 months.” Core Logic wasn’t immediately available for comments.

“在某种程度上，这种趋势反映了地区的经济实力，”CoreLogic的首席经济咨询师弗兰克在一份新闻稿中提到。“科罗拉多和得克萨斯有着较强的创造就业的能力，在过去的12个月里增长率达到8％－9%。”

A quick price gain doesn’t mean the market is overvalued, but strong demand for real estate and limited supply can certainly lead to a market being overvalued. And the more prices are overvalued, the greater the chance that a bubble might be forming.

房价的迅速增长并不意味着整个市场是被高估的，但是房地产市场强劲的需求和有限的供应量会导致市场的高估。随着价格的进一步被高估，更有可能形成更大的泡沫。

Trulia’s Bubble Watch data, which lists home prices relative to fundamentals for the nation as a whole and for 100 U.S. metro areas, can shed light on whether the U.S. and these states might be overvalued.

Trulia的观察数据显示 对比整个国家和100个都会区视为的整体，可以观察出是否美国和这些州的房价被高估。

In the country, home prices were still 2 percent undervalued relative to fundamentals in the fourth quarter, Trulia wrote in January. In the first quarter of 2006, at the height of the last housing bubble, home prices soared to 34 percent overvalued. 

Trulia1月的数据显示，在过去的第四季度，美国锅内房屋价格仍然被相对低估2%左右。在2006年第一季度，也就是房地产泡沫的顶峰时期，房屋价格飙升了34%。

There’s not yet a bubble in the U.S., despite factors reminiscent of the last housing bubble, including low interest rates (still below 4 percent) and somewhat lax rules on down payments for first-time buyers. But looking at specific states can give a different picture and the Trulia data points to some markets being overvalued.

All Colorado and New York markets mentioned by Trulia were still undervalued in the fourth quarter, including New York City (5 percent undervalued) and Long Island (4 percent undervalued). Wyoming wasn’t even mentioned.

到目前为止美国房地产市场还没有形成泡沫，但是低利率（低于4%）和首次购房所需首付款要求的松懈等这些因素还会让人不禁想起上一次的房地产泡沫。不同的州可以看到不同的景象，Trulia的数据指出一些地区的房地产市场是被高估的。在Trulia第四季度的数据中显示科罗拉多州的全部城市和纽约州的大部分地方的市场仍然是被低估的，这其中包括纽约（房价被低估5%）和长岛（房价被低估4%）。怀俄明州并没有被提及。

What about Texas?

Some of the largest price increases, including distressed sales, occurred in the Houston/The Woodlands/Sugar Land market (10.9 percent) and in the Dallas/Plano/Irving market (9.1 percent), according to CoreLogic. 

得克萨斯州如何呢？

通过CoreLogic的数据我们可以得知，一些地区房价及不良销售都有大幅的增长，在休斯顿、糖城和伍德兰市德平均达到10.9%的增长，在达拉斯、普莱诺以及欧文市也达到9.1%的涨幅。

Trulia’s Bubble Watch claims that all but one market (Fort Worth) was found to be overvalued. Home prices in Austin were overvalued by 16 percent, while those in Houston, San Antonio and Dallas were overvalued by 10 percent, 7 percent and 3 percent respectively. The oil business isn’t the only industry feeding that home price appreciation in the Lone Star state. Technology has also been a large contributor, especially in Austin.

Trulia 数据表明所有地区（除了沃思堡）的房价都被高估了。奥斯汀的房价被高估了大约16%，休斯顿、圣安东尼奥以及达拉斯也分别被高估了大概10%、7%和3%左右。 石油产业并不是推高孤星之州房价上涨的唯一原因，科技产业的发展在奥斯汀地区房价上涨也起到了很大的作用。

Whether the steep home price appreciation in some Texas markets will lead to a bubble will depend on whether the employment growth there is sustainable in the long term.

德州房产升值是否会导致地产泡沫将取决于当地在长期的就业增长是否有可持续性。

A continued drop in oil prices, or even a tech bubble burst, could easily curb demand for housing in hot Texas markets, and take some of the air out of the sky high prices.

油价的持续下跌以及科技泡沫的破灭都可能轻易的遏制住得克萨斯州火热的房地产市场，并且将房价从虚高的位置打回合理。